Steelers 'Believe it or Not': Ben Roethlisberger will be back as good as ever - TribLIVE

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The building of the 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers is about to begin.

NFL free agency starts March 18. The NFL Draft begins April 23.

So let’s take a look at some of the things the Steelers have told us about what they plan to do this offseason and if we believe them.

Or if we think they are blowing smoke.

Over the next few days, we are going to examine some of the stated plans and goals of Mike Tomlin, Kevin Colbert and Art Rooney II — and if we can expect those things to play out the way they want us to assume.

On our first day, we look at Colbert’s bold declaration that Ben Roethlisberger may be better than ever despite his elbow surgery.

Quotes from Steelers general manager Kevin Colbert at the NFL Combine (Feb. 25)

Here’s what Colbert said about his starting quarterback and the elbow surgery he needed after just two games in 2019.

“We might have a better Ben Roethlisberger coming out of the surgery. He sat for this year and didn’t have the wear and tear on his body for a year. Sure, he had a significant surgery but we’re optimistic he might be better.”

“I think the possibility is real that he could be a better football player coming out of this surgery, just as much as he might be a more regressed football player. So I think we have to give that the nod. So again, I’m encouraged and excited where he can go.”

“We are very optimistic that this could be a better Ben Roethlisberger.”

Believe it or not?

Don’t believe it.

Why we shouldn’t

Most Steelers fans really want to believe this.

Of course, we do. But I don’t know how we could.

After what we saw at quarterback last year in Pittsburgh while Roethlisberger was hurt, I’d take a reasonable facsimile of an average season from the future Hall of Famer and be content.

Suggesting that a 38-year-old quarterback coming off a severe elbow surgery is somehow going to be just as good as ever sounds insane.

This is a guy who once had a 32-9 touchdown to interception ratio (in 2014). A QB rating of 104.1 (in 2007). A season with 5,129 yards and 34 touchdowns (in 2018).

Expecting Big Ben to match or exceed those accomplishments is pie-in-the-sky thinking.

That’s to say nothing of Roethlisberger’s need to work back into game shape aside from his arm, while playing behind an offensive line and a run game that isn’t as good as it was as recently as 2017 or even 2018.

Clearly, Colbert could be playing a semantics game.

If what Colbert means by those comments is that Roethlisberger is going to be better than the guy who stepped on Heinz Field back on Sept. 15 with an elbow so frayed it was about to explode against the Seattle Seahawks, then that’s not saying much.

If what Colbert means by those comments is that Roethlisberger may be more inclined to get rid of the ball quicker than in years past, take fewer chances, and be less prone to squeeze balls into tight windows, I guess he might be onto something.

Maybe.

After all, in his last 19 starts, dating back to the AFC playoff loss to Jacksonville, Roethlisberger has thrown 18 interceptions. He led the league in 2018 with 16.

During those starts, the team went 9-9-1.

The more reasonable expectation of Roethlisberger in 2020 — and likely beyond — is that he manages to come back healthy enough to aid the Steelers’ pass game to the degree that the offense capitalizes on the chances presented by a defense that was vastly improved in 2019.

In other words, maybe a slightly better version of what we saw from Peyton Manning his last two years with the Denver Broncos.

Basically, the statistics may drop, but he’d be good enough to get them to them deep into the AFC playoffs.

That’s the best-case scenario for the team. If not for Roethlisberger and his own stats.

I’d take that eventuality 100 times out of 100. Hopefully Roethlisberger will, too.

And that extends to Colbert, Tomlin and Randy Fichtner when it comes to building, designing, and executing the 2020 offense as well.

Do they actually believe it?

They kinda have to, don’t they?

To quell the concern of the fan base. To boost the morale of the roster. To spook the rest of the division.

After all, they gave a hard sell at the end of the year about how much the absence of Roethlisberger impacted everybody else on offense.

If they don’t believe it, then they’ve got an offense to rebuild.

And extremely limited cap room and draft choices to do it.

Oh, and a very expensive quarterback who is bionically repaired.

So, best if they believe it.

Or, at least, talk themselves into it.

I know I’m trying.

Tim Benz is a Tribune-Review staff writer. You can contact Tim at tbenz@tribweb.com or via Twitter. All tweets could be reposted. All emails are subject to publication unless specified otherwise.