Each day in March, NBC Sports Chicago is previewing one player from the Cubs’ expected 2020 Opening Day roster. Next up is closer Craig Kimbrel.
2019 recap
Quite simply, 2019 was the worst season of Kimbrel’s Hall of Fame worthy career, and by a long shot. Let’s start with the numbers:
In 23 appearances, Kimbrel went 0-4 while converting 13 of 16 save opportunities. He posted career highs in ERA (6.53), WHIP (1.60) and home runs allowed (9) — the latter coming in just 20 2/3 innings of work.
Now, some explanation. Kimbrel dealt with unusual circumstances leading to him joining the Cubs. He remained a free agent into June because compensation was attached to him from the Red Sox tending him a qualifying offer after the 2018 season.
Suitors hesitated to meet his asking price in the winter, and even after it went down, wanted to wait until the compensation period ended to sign him. The Cubs pounced with a three-year, $43 million deal, and Kimbrel joined the club on June 27 following a three-week, quasi-spring training in the minor leagues.
Professional athletes are extremely routine oriented, and Kimbrel was months behind schedule. Although he trained on his own while in free agency limbo, that — and his three weeks of preparation once signed — pale in comparison to a normal spring training. Despite all the success he’s enjoyed in his career, last season was very unorthodox.
The final numbers mask it, but Kimbrel got into a groove from early-July until hitting the injured list on Aug. 5 with right knee inflammation. He posted a 2.70 ERA with 14 strikeouts in 10 innings, walking six. He struggled upon returning, citing poor location and the injury throwing off his mechanics while speaking to reporters in Arizona last month.
Expectations for this season’s role
The Cubs signed Kimbrel to be their closer, and that’s exactly what he’ll be in 2020. The bullpen has four or five spots up for grabs right now, and the Cubs are counting on Kimbrel to be the leader of what will be a relatively inexperienced group.
If Kimbrel’s struggles persist, it’ll be interesting to see how manager David Ross handles the ninth inning. Other options include Jeremy Jeffress and Rowan Wick; the former has 44 career saves, including 27 in 2016 and 15 in 2018.
2020 outlook
With his track record, the Cubs are counting on Kimbrel bouncing back this season and 2019 being a fluke.
“I think it’s impossible to pinpoint how much of his struggles have been because of [his extended 2018-19 offseason], but from my perspective it’s the single biggest factor,” Epstein said of Kimbrel in September. “He’s never struggled like this before. He’s never even been close to having this type of performance before.”
Kimbrel has only one other season with an ERA above 2.75 on his résumé (2016 — 3.40). He’s been as good as any closer in baseball, and although relievers are extremely volatile, logic says last season was more of an anomaly.
That’s not to say there isn’t reason to be concerned. What happens if Kimbrel can’t bounce back? He’s guaranteed $32 million total the next two seasons, a hefty price for an ineffective reliever — especially for the budget-strapped Cubs.
Furthermore, his fastball velocity continued decreasing last season (96.2 mph, down from 97.1 in 2018 and 98.3 in 2017). The difference may seem minor, but for a two-pitch guy like Kimbrel, those extra ticks are integral to his success. There’s more room for error when you can throw a fastball past someone.
Kimbrel doesn’t have to be the 1.43 ERA guy he was in Boston in 2017. The Cubs need him to be much, much better than he was last season, however, and common sense says he will be.
The complete Ross-ter rundown series:
1. Cubs hoping Kris Bryant stabilizes leadoff spot in 2020
2. Kyle Hendricks is a steady force in the Cubs' rotation
3. Kyle Schwarber is primed for a breakout 2020 season
4. Tyler Chatwood has chance to rewrite the script in 2020
5. David Bote searching for more offensive consistency in 2020
6. One pitch could hold key to Jose Quintana's 2020 success
7. Albert Almora Jr. looking to rebound behind new swing, refreshed mental state
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March 08, 2020 at 06:09PM
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Cubs counting on bounce back season from Craig Kimbrel - NBCSports.com
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