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Closely Watched Iowa Poll Held Back Over Survey Problem - The Wall Street Journal

The sponsors of a closely watched poll in Iowa said they couldn’t determine whether an issue raised with how the survey was conducted was an isolated incident. Photo: ivan alvarado/Reuters

DES MOINES, Iowa—The sponsors of the most closely watched poll in Iowa decided Saturday night to hold back the results of the last survey before Monday’s caucuses, injecting added uncertainty into the final stages of the Democratic presidential-nomination race in this state.

Results of the Iowa Poll, long considered the gold standard of surveys in the state, were to be released on live television at 8 p.m. local time on CNN, which sponsors the survey with the Des Moines Register and Mediacom.

In a statement, CNN said that the poll’s sponsors made the decision after “a respondent raised an issue with the way their interview was conducted, which could have compromised the results of the poll.”

The statement also said the polling group couldn’t determine whether it was an isolated incident.

“Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa Poll,” Carol Hunter, the Register’s executive editor, wrote on the newspaper’s website. “It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.”

The name of Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Ind., was left out of an interview, and it was unclear if other candidates may have been omitted, according to a person familiar with the situation. The problem involved a call center that conducted the surveys, the person said.

Lis Smith, Mr. Buttigieg’s communications director, confirmed on Twitter the involvement of their campaign in the situation.

“Our campaign received a report from a recipient of the Iowa Poll call, raising concerns that not every candidate was named by the interviewer when asked who they support,” she said. “We shared this with the organizations behind the poll, who conducted an internal investigation and determined not to release it. We applaud CNN and the Des Moines Register for their integrity.”

Iowa Polls released the weekend before the caucuses have traditionally given candidates near the top, or showing upward movement, a boost of momentum. They have also hurt candidates showing weakness. The results can offer validation for voters looking for a nudge to finally make a decision.

“I think they realized the stakes, and I think they realized they have a reputation to uphold,” former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack said of the poll’s sponsors. He joined former Vice President Joe Biden at a campaign event Saturday evening in Waterloo, Iowa.

The hiccup comes as there have been increasing complaints and public suspicion about the credibility of polling, including from President Trump.

Write to John McCormick at mccormick.john@wsj.com and Ken Thomas at ken.thomas@wsj.com

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