Happy -- *checks notes* -- Masters week??? For the first time we're going to get a ridiculous weekend of the best golf available on the planet coupled with football. Typically speaking the Masters represents the start of spring and some kind of rebirth. Maybe that's happening!
It would be nice if things turned a corner. And by "things" I mean "my terrible picks," of course. They've been hot garbage the last two weeks after a hot run. It's OK, we're just halfway through the season, so there's time to turn it around and make a run here.
While you're here, make sure and check out the latest episode of the Pick Six Podcast below and, since you're dying for golf advice, check out the First Cut Podcast as well. They crush it on PGA Tour stuff and will be recapping every single round of the Masters.
Anywho, to the picks. And a brighter future! All odds courtesy of our pals at William Hill Sportsbook.
NFL Week 10 Picks
Indianapolis (5-3) at Tennessee (6-2)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Fox/NFL Network/Amazon)
The NFL is weird. I feel very confident the Ravens should have beaten the Steelers and maybe even more confident the Colts should have beaten the Ravens. Sometimes the ball bounces funny! That happens when it's oblong and made of leather and is being thrown around by 22 people on a gigantic field. My problem with the Titans here is they're not good on defense. And if you can bottle up their run game -- which is not easy to do -- you can make them a little one dimensional. I'm scared of Derrick Henry on Thursday but I'm going to ride with the Colts in this spot.
Projected score: Colts 28, Titans 24
Best Bet: Colts (pk)
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Washington (2-6) at Detroit (3-5)
1 p.m. (Fox)
Spread: OFF
One thing I like to preach (and sometimes not follow) is the importance of adjusting your preseason expectations. You can get caught wishcasting on certain teams, and I did that on the Lions. This isn't a good football team. Neither is Washington, but the Lions shouldn't be favored by more than three over anyone right now. Not with the pressure Washington can bring and the total lack of closing power Detroit has. Washington will get it within three or four late worst case.
Projected score: Lions 21, Washington 17
Jacksonville (1-7) at Green Bay (6-2)
1 p.m. (Fox)
While I'm really proud of the Jags for ruining my Sunday last week and storming through the backdoor against Houston, there's no way I can back them here. They are terrible and Green Bay is not. The Packers have a stout running game to complement Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams. The Jaguars can win on the ground, and Green Bay's rush defense isn't great, but that should be mitigated by the fact that weather is a serious issue here. Lambeau is expecting 20+ mph winds. That bodes well for the under and the Packers, who can stack the box against James Robinson and force a thing named Jake Luton to beat them.
Projected score: Packers 34, Jaguars 17
Best Bet: N/A (if weather is really bad I like the under at 51 or less)
Tampa Bay (6-3) at Carolina (3-6)
1 p.m. (Fox)
This is a very fickle league. Remember when the Bucs were the best team in football? That was less than a week ago. Now we're wondering about their offense's future and Bruce Arians is openly calling out Antonio Brown's snap counts. Should make for a fun next couple of weeks. This reeks of Tom Brady taking out his frustrations, though. Carolina is frisky as all get out, but they're not great defensively and I think Tampa's front four can create issues for Teddy Bridgewater. Mike Davis is a great DFS play here at min price.
Projected score: Buccaneers 35, Panthers 21
Best Bet: Buccaneers -5.5
1 p.m. (Fox)
Name something more tiresome in your entire life than the NFC East. Please, do it. And tweet it to me @WillBrinson. This division should be loaded up into a very small space rocket and shot to Mars ASAP. Or put in prime time every week. Whatever. This is a bad line, though. The Eagles are much better and the matchup is awful. They have a good defensive line, the Giants offensive line isn't good. Carson Wentz can spread it around a bit here and avoid James Bradberry. They should roll.
Projected score: Eagles 24, Giants 17
Best Bet: Eagles -3
Houston (2-6) at Cleveland (5-3)
1 p.m. (Fox)
WEATHER ALERT: tons of wind here. I took the under 51 on Wednesday and would recommend anything under 49 as of Thursday, assuming 21 mph winds hold. The Browns stadium is a major problem with wind and rain, as evidenced by their matchup against the Raiders. I don't hate the Browns -3 either -- they're great at running the ball, Houston is abhorrent against the run and the Texans only stay in games when Deshaun Watson throws the ball to Will Fuller and Brandin Cooks. Maybe they can dump some crossers off and prove me wrong, but I would bet this goes REAL low in the first half and worst case you can middle back in the second if Watson is down and forced to throw.
Projected score: Browns 17, Texans 10
Best Bet: Under 51 (down to 49), plus overs on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rushing
Buffalo (7-2) at Arizona (5-3)
4:05 p.m. (CBS)
The play here is the over. Ideally it will come down a bit from like 56, because NFL overs just don't get to 60 without some buy back, but if not you can still play it. The Cardinals have a decent defense, but they can be scored on (see: Tua last week). And Buffalo won't be able to stop Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. This reeks of a shootout. I'll take the dog in this spot too, because I don't trust Kliff Kingsbury after that Zane Gonzalez field goal last week. The Cardinals just don't seem to have "it" late on purpose.
Projected score: Bills 41, Cardinals 34
Best Bet: Over 55
L.A. Chargers (2-6) at Miami (5-3)
4:05 p.m. (CBS)
First of all, we have a ton of late games this week! Second of all, is the right team favored here? The Chargers find ways to lose every week, so betting on them probably isn't advised, but I'm not sure we should be hanging the crown on Miami just yet. Justin Herbert vs. Tua Tagovailoa is appointment television. The Chargers defense might not be great and Miami can cause problems, but Herbert is on a historic pace right now as a rookie. If you extrapolated his stats to 16 games he would be completing 67 percent of his passes for 4,900 yards, 39 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Put some conservative qualifiers around it and you realize the only people to achieve these kind of numbers are 2011 Drew Brees, 2013 Peyton Manning and 2013 Drew Brees. SHEESH.
Projected score: Chargers 28, Dolphins 27
Best Bet: Chargers +2.5 (prefer 3, duh)
San Francisco (4-5) at New Orleans (6-2)
4:05 p.m. (Fox)
Feels like the Saints are about to go on a run. They do this every year, fooling us out of the gate by struggling and then suddenly ripping off a ton of games. Sean Payton is dancing in the locker room and the Michael Thomas problems have magically disappeared with a productive, on-field outing. The defense played its best game of the year against Tampa Bay. Not a great sign for the 49ers, the most injured team in football.
Projected score: Saints 34, 49ers 17
Best Bet: Saints -9.5
Seattle (6-2) at L.A. Rams (5-3)
4:05 p.m. (Fox)
Heeeee-yuge matchup in the NFC West here. And it will come down to how Sean McVay plays this one. If he's smart, he won't bother running too much and just let Jared Goff hit crosser after crosser against the Seahawks defense. Surely they won't blitz like crazy again this week? It didn't work well against Josh Allen. Pressure makes Goff crater, but if McVay preps him well they can carve up Seattle in the pass game. I love the over here, but if McVay comes out running a ton, he'll lose and the game will go under, so watch out for that (see the 49ers game a few weeks ago). If the Rams can get a lead, this is a live over game like crazy. Russell Wilson passing aggressively and the other team knowing it has to keep scoring? Makes for a ton of points a la last week.
Projected score: Rams 45, Seahawks 37
Best Bet: Over 55.5, Rams TT O 28 -- and then bet the live over as much as possible if the Seahawks get down
Cincinnati (2-5-1) at Pittsburgh (8-0)
4:25 p.m. (Fox)
Spread: OFF
Is this game getting played? It should, based on how things are progressing from a COVID standpoint. But it's no guarantee obviously. I like a lot of points here, but I'm worried this ends up like Baltimore-Cincy, where Joe Burrow is just under siege the entire time. Pittsburgh has great pass rushers, they smash in the division, they're coming off an ugly win against the Cowboys and people are doubting their bonafides. I'll take the Bengals VERY reluctantly here.
Projected score: Steelers 24, Bengals 17
Baltimore (6-2) at New England (3-5)
8:20 p.m. (NBC)
Is this a trap? How did the Patriots open at +7, nearly lose to the Jets and open back up at +7? The Ravens are better than the Jets. Maybe Lamar Jackson isn't as good a passer as Joe Flacco (idk, man), but Baltimore should run all day long against New England. This line makes no sense. Neither does 2020. I'm tired of being tricked. Just give me the obvious bet.
Projected score: Ravens 24, Patriots 14
Best Bet: Ravens -7, Under 44
Minnesota (3-5) at Chicago (5-4)
Monday, 8:15 p.m. (ESPN)
This will sound like sarcasm but it's not: this game is ENORMOUS for the NFC North. The Bears are reeling (I, for one, am shocked) and the Vikings are coming on strong. Dalvin Cook is getting MVP buzz. Minnesota's schedule after this game is great for making a push towards the playoffs. But I don't think they match up well at all here. They want to run, and Chicago is good against the run. The Vikings struggle with big, physical receivers and Allen Robinson could eat in this game. I love the narrative of the Vikings really putting the Bears playoff hopes in the ground, but Kirk Cousins needs to beat Chicago convincingly first for me to buy in.
Projected score: Bears 24, Vikings 17
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