The MLS Is Back Tournament field has been reduced to the fab four, and the nature of the semifinal match-ups makes predicting who'll reach the title game a thankless task.
I happen to dig those jobs, so it's time to stick my neck out again with tough decisions about which two clubs will meet for all the marbles at the pointiest end of the competition. Honestly, I can make compelling advancement arguments for all four remaining teams (and did, in my head, for quite a while). Eventually, one has to lay the chips down by making a call. Here are mine for the semifinals.
Philadelphia Union vs. Portland Timbers
Wednesday, August 5 (8 pm ET | FS1, TUDN, UniMás in US; TSN, TVAS2 in Canada)
The Union seem to be taking the next natural step in a gradual rise toward the MLS elite at this tournament. Philly harass you at every turn, and are one of those rare teams that can be as comfortable beating you with 40 percent of the ball as they are when they own 60 percent of it. It certainly doesn't hurt that Brenden Aaronson and Sergio Santos have decided to sharply raise their games at the exact same time. Even with all that going for them, the real story of their tournament has been the restored dominance of goalkeeper Andre Blake. He has stolen results in Orlando already.
Of course, the Timbers' knockout cred department needs no introduction. Sebastian Blanco and the two Diegos will lead the charge, and we may soon include rising forward Jeremy Ebobisse in that group. Portland loves to draw teams out and then hurt them on the break with star power. They play hard, play together and even play a little fancy when needed. No one would be surprised to see them in the final.
This one could go either way, but that sentiment doesn't qualify as a prediction, does it? If I must separate these sides, it's going to come down to the center back tandems and netminders behind them. For me, the Union have a slight edge in the first department and the hottest goalkeeper in the tournament. Though not usually in the habit of betting against the Timbers in knockout situations, I simply like Philly to limit damage better.
Prediction: Philadelphia Union
Minnesota United vs. Orlando City SC
Thursday, August 6 (8 pm ET | ESPN2, ESPN Deportes in US; TSN, TVAS2 in Canada)
Orlando City have been the best feel-good story at MLS is Back, hands down. They've played with a 90-minute maturity rarely seen over the club's first five years, while maintaining the “Cardiac Cats” antics that have authored so many of their victories. I've enjoyed every second of their play since about the hour mark of their tourney opener. Oscar Pareja has his boys playing with a cohesive spirit, and they absolutely can win MLS is Back.
Of course, that last sentence can also easily apply to Adrian Heath's Minnesota United. Even if most observers aren't buying the excessive underdog routine, the Loons have definitely come to Orlando in the mood to scrap. They're brave and brash and can come at you in different ways. Even with Romain Metanire and Kevin Molino nursing ailments, Minnesota essentially crushed San Jose by out-San Jose-ing them. This flexibility is a benefit of the reliable core strength provided by Ozzie Alonso, Jan Gregus and now Jacori Hayes.
You know, I almost went with Orlando City against LAFC, but decided against it. I'm afraid it'll have to be that way again, as I just can't pick against Minnesota United, dinged up or not. Like Philadelphia, the Loons were among my top favorites for the title before the tournament kicked off. After they coolly bounced arguably two of the three scariest teams down in Orlando, I'm sticking with them to reach the final... even if that makes me a major buzzkill.
Prediction: Minnesota United
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August 02, 2020 at 10:56PM
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MLS is Back Tournament Semifinal predictions | Greg Seltzer - MLSsoccer.com
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