If you get the feeling you read or heard something similar last week or the week before, that’s perfectly understandable.
The procession of storms in the East marches on, incited by historically cold air that has penetrated all the way to the U.S.-Mexican border and is interacting with the warm moist air of the Gulf of Mexico, forecasters say.
Although significant icing wasn’t expected in the I-95 corridor from Philadelphia south and east, even a trace of freezing rain is enough to require a weather service advisory, given that just a veneer of ice is dangerous. Temperatures throughout the region were forecast to climb above freezing overnight and reach the snow-and-ice melting 40s Tuesday.
As for the Thursday threat, the weather service says “many locations could pick up several inches of snow fairly rapidly.”
And that scenario could change “fairly rapidly.” We keep learning that a computer model’s capacity to foresee a snowstorm is rivaled only by its capacity to erase it.
Meteorologists say the models have been having trouble keeping up with all the storm traffic racing across the country and more recently brewing in the shockingly frigid Gulf region.
“That’s crazy, crazy stuff,” said David Dombek, a meteorologist with AccuWeather Inc.
At lunchtime Monday, the temperature in Brownsville, Texas, right on the Mexican border, was 28 degrees, and a winter storm warning was in effect. The normal high for Feb. 15 would be 74. In McAllen, Texas, the low temperature of 21 broke the record for the date, 35, by a full 14 degrees.
The fact that so much cold air has invaded the central United States is related to the modest moderating trend around here, said Dombek: The planet has only so much cold air available at any given time.
After the rain stops Tuesday morning, temperatures have an outside shot at 50, as the sun could make its first serious appearance in eight days, Dombek said.
But more cold high pressure will build in for Wednesday, and surface temperatures will be cold enough for snow early Thursday as the storm approaches. That, he said, could lead to accumulating snow at the start, with the fate of the totals depending on how quickly the upper air warms.
AccuWeather is going with a “preliminary estimate” of 2-4 inches before any changeover, he said. Of course, that’s subject to change.
For forecasters, “It’s a rough pattern,” said Nicholas Carr, a meteorologist at the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly.
We’ve noticed.
A near certainty is that the winter wonderland look — that picturesque snow cover, the fangs of icicles drooping from the roofs — will be on the run.
“That’s a good bet,” Carr said.
Mount Holly had 5-6 inches on the ground Monday morning. That likely would be down to 1 or 2 inches on Tuesday, he said.
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February 16, 2021 at 08:07AM
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Icing advisories for parts of Philly region overnight, snow possible later in the week - The Philadelphia Inquirer
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