The U.S. economy may already have clawed back 5 million jobs of the 20-million-plus positions eliminated during the pandemic - MarketWatch

Traders are turning far and wide for more current data on the economy than what the government provides, as they assess how deep the recession is and the degree and speed to which it will recover.

Scheduling software company Homebase has been providing data on employment and hours worked on a daily basis during the crisis, which is a particularly useful real-time economic indicator because its customers are in the restaurant, food and beverage, retail and services businesses, where the job losses have centered.

The bad news is that employment on May 5 was down 51% from pre-shutdown levels, but the good news is that employment on the worst day, April 12, was down 74%, according to the Homebase figures.

Homebase’s measurement of employment, hours worked and open companies, based on its data for over 60,000 businesses.

“In other words, the decline versus the pre-COVID-19 level is becoming less deep as some jobs start to come back — albeit modestly as the reopening is only recently under way,” says Tom Porcelli, chief U.S. economist at RBC Capital Markets and a big user of the data.

Porcelli says his own estimate is the U.S. economy has probably clawed back about 5 million jobs thus far. The April jobs report, due on Friday, is expected to show 22 million nonfarm positions lost, according to a MarketWatch-compiled economist estimate.

The Homebase data also is broken down by city and state. The worst, to little surprise, is New York City, where 58% of business are closed and the coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. has been centered. The best is Oklahoma City, where just 24% of businesses are shut.

Montana has just 13% of its businesses closed, and North Dakota 14%, according to Homebase.

Almost 3.2 million people applied for unemployment benefits last week after the coronavirus cost them their jobs, but the historic wave of layoffs tied to the pandemic is receding. The number of initial jobless claims processed in the week ended May 2 was less than half the crisis peak of 6.9 million at the end of March.

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The U.S. economy may already have clawed back 5 million jobs of the 20-million-plus positions eliminated during the pandemic - MarketWatch
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