Boeing Co. on Tuesday pushed back its forecast for when regulators will clear the return of the 737 MAX to commercial service, saying it doesn’t expect approval until midyear at the earliest.
The plane maker said its new estimate for the Federal Aviation Administration’s signoff—which people briefed on the matter expect in June or July—takes into account the need for approving training for pilots and “experience to date with the certification process.”
The global MAX fleet has been grounded since last March following two fatal crashes, with Boeing repeatedly revising when it expected regulators to approve changes to the flight-control systems implicated in the accidents, as well as new training regimes. It previously forecast the FAA would lift its flight ban and approve training by January, with the expectation that it would still take some months before the MAX again carried passengers.
The delays have extended far longer than most airlines and industry analysts expected, and leave the global passenger-jet fleet short of almost 5% of planned capacity for a second peak summer season in a row, adding to the hefty compensation Boeing owes its customers.
The latest projection isn’t in response to the emergence of any new technical problems or fresh friction with regulators, according to people familiar with the matter.
Boeing, under its new chief executive, David Calhoun, aims to make more conservative assumptions for the return of the MAX after multiple prior estimates turned out to be wrong and riled customers and regulators, according to the people.
By tempering expectations, the company seeks to give itself more of a cushion for responding to unexpected complications or hurdles, including drawn-out efforts to repair and test planes sitting in storage for many months, these people said.
The revised timetable likely would still add to Boeing’s mounting bill for the MAX, pushing back the return to the air of hundreds of jets into next year and delaying the resumption of production.
Boeing shares closed down 3.3% at $313.37 after sinking to a new 52-week low on Tuesday before trading was briefly halted.
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The new guidance from Boeing could force airlines yet again to put off plans for using their MAX jets. U.S. carriers have already canceled planned MAX flights through early June and have said they prefer not to introduce brand-new jets during the peak summer season. Around 800 delivered and completed planes will miss the start of the summer season if the timeline outlined Tuesday holds.
Carriers are adjusting to the prospect that pilots will be required to undergo costly and time-consuming simulator training before flying the plane again. They had previously said they would need a month or more after regulators clear the plane to complete training and maintenance.
Mr. Calhoun, who took over the top job at Boeing this month following the ouster of Dennis Muilenburg, has said he planned to focus on rebuilding trust in the company as well as improving its transparency.
The company last week said it was working to correct another software problem that has cropped up in its effort to fix the MAX, adding to the technical issues that have complicated and delayed the grounded fleet’s return to service. The latest glitch prevents the jet’s flight-control computers from powering up and verifying they are ready for flight, according to industry and government officials. Mr. Calhoun discussed the matter with FAA chief Steve Dickson last week, according to a person familiar with the meeting.
Boeing had recently shied away from providing further guidance on the return of the MAX after missing its own estimates and suffering criticism from the FAA that its forecasts were pressuring regulators. However, the company had to provide internal assessments of the MAX’s return to close its 2019 accounts, with fourth-quarter earnings due to be reported on Jan. 29. Boeing issued its statement Tuesday after a report by CNBC.
Boeing’s revised estimate takes into account extensive reviews expected by regulators, new hiccups that could emerge and the potential to approve additional simulator training for pilots, one of the people familiar with the forecast said. The company’s statement specifically said the updated guidance reflects “attempts to address known schedule risks and further developments that may arise in connection with the certification process.”
On Tuesday, the FAA reiterated that it is sticking with “a thorough, deliberate process,” but declined to discuss specific technical issues or offer any timetable.
More than 380 jets were grounded last year, while Boeing has built an additional 400 that are stored and awaiting delivery. It is expected to take as long as two years to reintroduce all the planes, and Boeing this month halted production of the MAX to prevent the inventory from growing.
The production halt has added to pressure on MAX suppliers, as well as its own balance sheet. The largest supplier, Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc., has already said it is planning an initial 2,800 layoffs. Its shares fell another 4% on Tuesday.
—Doug Cameron
and Alison Sider
contributed to this article.
Write to Andrew Tangel at Andrew.Tangel@wsj.com and Andy Pasztor at andy.pasztor@wsj.com
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